Polymarket odds for China–Taiwan clash before 2027 slip to 7.25%
In early July, Sri Lanka’s worst dengue outbreak in nearly a decade prompted armed forces support, with air force drones and troops helping inspections after monsoon rains. (Read More)
Polymarket odds sink as Hormuz traffic normal-by-Dec bet falls to 55%
On July 21, Iran’s Guards claimed they struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and targeted U.S. defense systems in Bahrain. Polymarket traders care because the “traffic normal by Dec. (Read More)
Polymarket prices 16.5% Putin exit by June 2027 as ladder shifts long-dated
Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking seven “shadow fleet” vessels in the Azov and Black Seas and hitting air defenses and energy sites, including Crimea. (Read More)
Polymarket odds for Israel–Iran ceasefire ease to 99.65% after Kuwait claim
Iran said it targeted a US base in Kuwait with missiles, a headline that immediately nudged ceasefire-risk pricing in prediction markets. (Read More)
Polymarket: Vance holds 19.85% in 2028 market as Trump stays 1.45%
Democrats are scrambling to counter Donald Trump’s renewed attacks on Iran, highlighting internal debate over how to respond to his rhetoric and actions. (Read More)