Polymarket sees 99.85% odds Israel–Iran ceasefire holds through July 18
The Netherlands is reported to plan a ban on products from Israeli settlements starting September 22, adding fresh political pressure in the region. (Read More)
Polymarket: El-Sayed 80.5% in MI Dem Senate primary after slight dip
Carney blasted newly announced Trump tariffs, calling them a direct breach of an existing trade deal. (Read More)
Polymarket odds: Anthropic at 98% to top AI by July after $1.5B settlement
A federal US judge granted final approval of a $1.5 billion class-action settlement involving Anthropic over training Claude on copyrighted works. (Read More)
Polymarket prices 99.95% BTC above $56K by July 22 as higher strikes thin
A recent crypto markets report said Bitcoin rose as talk grew that the White House agreed to ethics-package wording tied to the Clarity Act, alongside strong ETF demand. (Read More)
Polymarket: United Russia at 56.5% to lead seat gains in 2026 Duma race
A report said Hungary was left without a presidential candidate after a chess legend declined, a headline that can jolt attention toward political bets. (Read More)
Polymarket odds of U.S. invading Iran before 2027 jump to 26.5%
Hamas elected Khalil al-Hayya as its new leader by a one-vote margin, underscoring internal splits over ties to Iran. Polymarket traders care because it could shift regional risk, with the “U.S. (Read More)
Polymarket odds: Le Pen rises to 30% in 2027 France election market
Republican lawmakers voiced renewed concern about Iran as a ceasefire was reported to be unraveling, underscoring how sudden security shocks can reshape broader political risk narratives. (Read More)
Polymarket prices 99.5% odds BTC tops $54K by July 24 as $68K fades
Bitcoin climbed above $66,000 as US gross federal debt hit $39.489 trillion ahead of Treasury borrowing updates on Aug. 3 and Aug. 5. (Read More)
Polymarket odds sink as Hormuz July 31 normalization seen unlikely
Vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz kept falling, a new report says, blaming the continued slide on fresh US–Iran attacks. (Read More)
Polymarket holds GOP 2028 nominee odds steady as Trump-Iran headline lands
A new Politico analysis says Donald Trump is entering a bleak Iran-related phase that could become a quagmire for his political standing. (Read More)