Polymarket odds rise to 70.5% for Iran Hormuz fees by Dec 31
Over a third straight night, the US reportedly struck Iran as Tehran claimed retaliation around the Strait of Hormuz, with blasts along the southern coast and attacks on vessels. (Read More)
Polymarket holds at 49% for RFK Jr. in 2028 GOP nominee market
On 2026-07-14, a Trump-focused piece titled “Donald Trump Presidency – Politico” was published, though the snippet offers no contract-specific drivers. (Read More)
Polymarket odds for July Fed hold fall to 65.5% as CPI focus grows
Ahead of US CPI, FX desks described the yen as consolidating while dollar bulls waited on inflation data and Fed-linked headlines. (Read More)
Polymarket odds hit 99.95% for Iran Gulf action by July 9 after Trump remarks
In an Oval Office media conference, President Donald Trump said the US should be paid by wealthy Gulf oil producers to secure the Strait of Hormuz from Iran and warned of another “major attack” on (Read More)
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.95% as 2028 leader, Trump at 1.35%
Donald Trump is expected to give a prime-time speech focusing on Iran and election integrity, a scheduled event that leaves room for markets to handicap expectations beforehand. (Read More)
Polymarket lifts Putin-out-by-2027 odds to 19.5% after Iran escalation
The US carried out a third straight night of strikes in Iran, as Donald Trump warned Tehran it would be “hit hard” and a naval blockade was reinstated. (Read More)
Polymarket slashes Hormuz normal-traffic odds to 56.5% after conflict headlines
Donald Trump reportedly said the Iran war is moving “very fast” and that the U.S. will seek control of the Strait of Hormuz, as oil prices rose with fresh fighting. (Read More)