Polymarket odds: Putin out by June 2027 rises to 18% amid Ukraine war escalation
Russian missiles and drones struck Kyiv and Odesa this week, with Ukraine reporting injuries and deaths, as Zelenskyy pressed NATO on commitments amid dwindling munitions. (Read More)
Polymarket odds put Mbappé at 32.5% to win 2026 Ballon d’Or after +5.45pp
A new housing report says this spring’s buying season was underwhelming for a fourth year, with mortgage rates hovering near 6.5% after a late-February dip reversed following the US attack on Iran. (Read More)
Polymarket odds peg BTC above $64K at 56.5% ahead of July 14 CPI
Bitcoin traded near $64,100 after a roughly 2.6% weekly rebound, with the U.S. CPI due July 14 as the next macro catalyst. (Read More)
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot 39.4% leads Netanyahu in Israel PM race
Sen. Lindsey Graham reportedly died at 71 after a brief illness, his office said, as South Carolina weighs steps to appoint a temporary replacement. (Read More)
Polymarket 2028 odds: Vance leads at 19.85% as Texas poll shifts focus
A Texas-focused poll finds Hispanic respondents now angrier about Trump’s deportations after previously swinging toward him, putting immigration enforcement at the center of a shifting state (Read More)
Polymarket odds for 2026 Fed hike drop to 58.5% after AI inflation talk
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting cited tariffs and “AI-related price pressures” as drivers of higher core goods inflation, with energy and AI infrastructure demand adding to costs. (Read More)
Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic normalization by Jul 15 at 0.35% Yes
A new report details rising Iran–US tensions and dueling claims about Strait of Hormuz shipping, even as mediator channels stay active and Iran’s hardliners talk retaliation. (Read More)
Polymarket Golden Ball odds hold at 50% as Golden Boot race heats up
World Cup 2026’s Golden Boot race tightened as Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe stayed level on eight goals, with Jude Bellingham’s two-goal knockout pushing him to six. (Read More)
Polymarket odds lift to 79.5% for Fed hold in July after CPI risk note
A research note ahead of the CPI release warned that shifting Fed policy expectations could drive near-term stock volatility. (Read More)
Polymarket odds of US invading Iran rise to 16.5% after strike footage report
The U.S. military reportedly released footage described as showing new strikes on Iran, renewing escalation fears. (Read More)