Drone hits raise Russia strain; Polymarket sees 11.5% chance Putin exits by 2026
As the war entered its fifth year, Ukraine’s drone campaign set a major oil refinery in southern Russia on fire, and Putin acknowledged a “certain deficit” of fuel while promising tougher protection (Read More)
Oil jumps on U.S.-Iran strikes as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold odds to 81.5%
West Texas Intermediate rose 0.71% to $69.72 after fresh U.S.-Iran strikes and a continued Strait of Hormuz blockade stoked supply fears. (Read More)
Azteca showdown vs Ecuador nudges Mexico to 43.5% on Polymarket
Tuesday at Azteca Stadium, co-host Mexico and Ecuador meet with a last-16 spot on the line after Ecuador’s 2-1 comeback over Germany and Mexico’s perfect, unbeaten group run. (Read More)
Hezbollah rhetoric hits Lebanon recognition odds as Polymarket slips to 21%
In a fresh statement, Iran-backed Hezbollah said it has a “right to defend its homeland” in Lebanon, underscoring continued readiness for confrontation amid high regional tensions. (Read More)
Tehran presses for Hormuz control as Polymarket sees 7.5% odds of normal traffic
In a live war update, Tehran insisted on controlling the Strait of Hormuz, while separate accounts pointed to talks involving the United States. (Read More)
Hegseth Pentagon firings spur Hill scrutiny as Polymarket stays at 49%
Congress is pressing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for answers after a wave of senior Pentagon firings, including Gen. Chris Donahue, raised bipartisan worries about wartime decision-making. (Read More)