Supreme Court rulings near as Polymarket cuts Newsom 2028 Dem odds to 20.55%
In the next few days, the Supreme Court is expected to issue several major rulings, including cases that could reshape presidential power and election rules ahead of the midterms. (Read More)
Hormuz halt report points to Qatar talks as Polymarket holds Doha at 48%
A report says the US and Iran agreed to halt Hormuz-linked attacks and plan Qatar talks on Tuesday to ease tensions around the strait. (Read More)
US-Iran strike pause shifts 2028 betting, Polymarket puts Vance at 19.25%
A U.S. official said Washington and Tehran agreed to halt strikes and meet this week, signaling a near-term push to cool tensions. (Read More)
Iran cancels technical talks as Polymarket puts 2026 deal odds at 45.5%
After recent attacks, Iran canceled planned technical talks, state TV reported, offering no new timetable and adding uncertainty to the nuclear track. (Read More)
Dnipropetrovsk hit refocuses front as Polymarket Crimea odds rise to 13.5%
Over the past day, Russian forces launched 40-plus attacks across Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, injuring two people and damaging homes and infrastructure, local officials said. (Read More)
Ceasefire-collapse report hits Polymarket as Trump Iran-entry odds slide
A new report warned the U.S.-Iran ceasefire could still fail, casting doubt on how long the current pause in hostilities lasts. (Read More)
Murphy pushes $25 minimum wage as Polymarket prices Vance at 19% for 2028
On Sunday, Sen. Chris Murphy said a $25 federal minimum wage could help Democrats win back working-class voters, backing his Living Wage for All Act to phase it in over years. (Read More)
US-Iran MoU keeps deal clock ticking as Polymarket prices 44.5% by Dec 31
A June 28 opinion analysis said the US-Iran MoU is best seen as a pause, not a peace framework, warning Tehran may abandon commitments when convenient. (Read More)
BofA sees 75 bps Fed hikes as Polymarket keeps 2026 no-cuts at 77%
Bank of America updated its outlook this week, raising global growth expectations and projecting 75 bps of additional Fed hikes even as inflation cools. (Read More)
Iran warns on Hormuz as Polymarket July 15 normalization odds drop to 12.5%
Iran’s foreign minister said any challenge to the Strait of Hormuz would “increase tensions,” highlighting risks to the key shipping lane. (Read More)