Euro holds amid Middle East risk as Polymarket hikes July Fed hold odds to 81.5%
In recent trading, the euro stayed steady versus the U.S. dollar as investors tracked Middle East tensions and shifting expectations for the Fed’s next move. (Read More)
Bolton guilty plea lifts Polymarket odds of Putin exit by 2026 to 13.5%
Former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton pleaded guilty Friday in federal court in Greenbelt, Maryland, to illegally retaining national defense information, with sentencing set for Oct. 28. (Read More)
Hormuz ship strike stalls UN evacuation as Polymarket Yes rises to 54.5%
After a cargo ship was struck near Oman, the UN’s maritime agency paused plans to evacuate over 11,000 sailors from the Strait of Hormuz pending safety guarantees. (Read More)
May inflation hits 4.1% as Polymarket sees 79% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026
After the Fed held rates steady last week, some Trump advisers signaled more patience with Chair Kevin Warsh even as inflation hit 4.1% in May. (Read More)
White House export standoff sidelines Anthropic as Polymarket odds hit 86.5%
After a June 12 export control order, Anthropic has kept its Mythos-class models offline for two weeks and sent executives to Washington as negotiations drag on. (Read More)
Post-PCE dip keeps BTC near $58K as Polymarket sees 99% odds above $54K
On June 25, Bitcoin briefly slid to $58,189 after May PCE data landed near expectations, then bounced toward the high-$59,000s despite ETF outflows and hawkish-rate pressure. (Read More)
POW swap lifts Polymarket odds of Ukraine retaking Crimea to 14.5% by 2026
On Friday, Ukraine and Russia each returned 160 prisoners of war in a new exchange, Zelensky said. (Read More)
Voter-pressure thesis ripples as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%
A political commentary piece says voter sentiment, not Senate Republicans, most constrained Donald Trump’s Iran posture, highlighting how domestic incentives can steer foreign policy. (Read More)
Food for Agile Thought 550: Make AI Boring, Everyone’s a Product Manager Soon, Fixing Procrastination, Agentic “Team” Topologies
TL; DR: Make AI Boring — Food for Agile Thought #550 Welcome to the 550th edition of the Food for Agile Thought newsletter, shared with 35,481 peers. This week, Charity Majors rejects AI purity theater and urges disciplined workplace experiments, just make AI boring again, while Gojko Adzic warns that faster builders without product judgment […]
AAVE Price Prediction: Bulls Are Running Out of Road Below $89 Resistance
AAVE is pressing against its upper Bollinger Band at $84 with MACD momentum completely flatlined — a near-term pullback to the $78 support zone is the higher-probability play, but a clean daily clo… (Read More)